Joe Biden
0.0% to 270Median outcome
0 EV | 270 short
Expected EV
0 EV | -270.0 swing
ElectEffect 2024
A probability-first look at the Electoral College
Adjust assumptions to explore how the race shifts under different national swings or turnout models.
Model status
Updating...
Tie probability
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Simulations
10,000 default runs
Electoral College map
Shaded by relative win probability
Re-running simulations...
cand_biden
cand_trump
blend indicates win oddsOutcome odds
Expected electoral votes and chances of clearing the 270-vote threshold.
Donald Trump
0.0% to 270Median outcome
0 EV | 270 short
Expected EV
0 EV | -270.0 swing
Scenario controls
Apply what-if adjustments and choose how the map should be shaded.
Matchup
Pick two candidates to compare. Add more options or custom entries as needed.
Candidate A
Candidate B
Active candidates
Joe BidenDonald Trump
Available candidates
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